And.... they're off!

With the first votes having already been cast in the first primary of the 2004 Presidential Election, we're finally now in proper campaign territory - as the man said, it's magic time, people. Iowa's got pride of place as the first caucus, but when you want to talk about real, concrete countable votes, you've got to look to New Hampshire.

Today will set the tone of the rest of the campaign. Will Kerry solidify his post-Iowa lead (check out the numbers v. Bush)? Will Edwards make another surprising showing? Will Dean put himself back into contention, or scupper his campaign in the first round? Will Clark come from out of nowhere to capitalize on his early success? Well, OK, the last one is a bit of a stretch, but you never know.

Comments

[Chrish]

After watching the perpetual news's devotion to any kind of contraversy, i.e the never ending reporting on Dean's "meltdown" after his loss in Iowa. It would appear he's losing ground and goint to continue losing. Frankly, I really don't understand what all the hubbub was about?

He just appeared to be someone trying to rally his troops with a whole lot of pep talk... OK, perhaps it was a bit extreme but, not to the extent that a lot of the news media types were making of it. I can't figure this one out.

I don't understand the polling numbers in your link Luke. How can the majority of the people be against Bush AND the majority of them believe he will be relected that doesn't make sense??

[Luke]

The poll numbers speak for themselves. More people would like Bush out than have him stay in, but they believe themselves to be in the minority, therefore they are (at the moment) not optimistic about him getting tossed out in November. If we see more polls like this, however, you'll see the second number start to change as people begin to realize that getting Bush out of office is A) attainable and B) desirable.

[maryann]

I've been getting the impression from friends back home that they feel pessimistic about the election because the Bushies are insane power-hungry bullies who will rip apart any of Bush's opponents, and the majority of Americans who don't spend much time thinking or reading about current events, will just fall for it. Similar to the whole "Saddam = 9/11" smokescreen.

Also this may sound a little over the top (and I'm sure our Bushy friends will go nuts with this) a lot of people feel the administration will find a way to make the elections go in their favour, no matter what the actual votes are. People seem to honestly feel they are capable of absolutely any foul play to get their way. And there is the whole Diebold scenario...

[Chrish]

Now we're going into conspiracy theories, rumors, and let us not forget the almight Fear Factor?

Been there, done that Maryann that's how rumor's spread and grow. "I heard from my friends who heard from their friends who read in some magazine by some author who heard from his friends who heard from their friends that such and such happened and was done by so and so."

The election has not happened yet and a whole heck of a lot of things can happen, might happen, maybe happen. To feel pessimistic now is sad.

I agree that with the recent revelations of the Diebold thing and the new god of "Voting Machines", i.e, "Electronic Voting" there is cause for concern as regards Election Fraud.

I believe there will be a very close watch on the elections by various groups, news media, watch dogs, etc. that the possibility of fraud occurring by either side or the likes of the 2000 election occuring again will be extremely remote.

The point is not only getting people to get out and vote but, to ensure they know how to properly use the voting machines they will be voting in or to ensure that the ballots they will be using are clear, consise, and understandable so there is no confusion whatsoever. Given the past 200 years of our country's existence and voting history surely that can be accomplished?

I don't know about you folks overseas but from watching the continual coverage of the Democratic campaigns, the elections, the enthusiasm of the people I do not see pessimism. I see hope, determination, enthusiasm, and a whole lot of people expressing their position's, their viewpoints, and belief's and that's a good thing.

It's the same thing I see here on the Expat's site. Yes I may disagree with some of them but, I do see and read the same thing and that's a good thing.....

[maryann]

Chrish, with respect, I'm not sure you got the point of my post. I am not pessimistic about the election, in any way, nor am I encouraging anyone else to feel so. My post was a direct response to Luke's comment that people want Bush out, but feel he will inevitably find some way to get re-elected.

I have no idea what you mean by rumours, fear factor, "friends of friends" or really any of that part of your post. I am referring to actual conversations I've had with actual humans who live in America, and their fears and their feelings. I couldn't agree more, it is deeply saddening to see how paranoid and frightened and pessimistic people have become, and I don't endorse their pessimism.

I have no doubt we will have to be stout of heart to get these interlopers out of office, and I will do my little tiny bit to spread a message of hope to my friends back home who need to know there are a lot of us out there.

[Chrish]

Maryann,

I also talk to friends and acquaintances whom we agree and disagree on issues but, not one of them has expressed any concern, pessimism, nor "fears"
as regards the upcoming elections. Quite the opposite they are, in fact, all fired up, hopeful, determined, and incredibly enthusiastic
and they are all Democrat's..... It's the same spirit I have observed here represented in Luke and many of his compadres... In them I see hope, optimism, determination, strength, and courage.
For me, this very site is a testament to that spirit...

Meaning no disrespect but, I think you know exactly what I meant you just seem to find it necessary to try and pick things to pieces or pyscho-analyze everthing one says.

Yes, I do believe that is spreading rumors or the beginning's of one. You say "your friends" and then someone else picks it up and says "I heard that people are afraid", someone else picks it up and continues it on. Did you not say "and their fears"? That's what I'm talking about, The Fear Factor.

"he will inevitably find some way to get re-elected" that seems to be a rather fatalistic attitude to take. One could also say then "why bother to vote?" Analyze that one.

"Interlopers"? Sorry, I'm not going to go there again, that's a dead issue and needs to be put to rest where it belongs.

The point of Luke's post is They're Off and yes they are. Look what has happened in the past few weeks since the Iowa Caucus. While the pundits were saying Dean the people are saying Kerry
making all the pollster's, know-it-all pundit's looking like fools.

When everyone thought Dean was out due to his Pep Rally in Iowa he made an incredible come back from what many thought was his demise. Things could change in the following months regarding the candidates and the continuing debates between them. They are, after all, bringing up many issues that people are concerned about or did not consider. This also serve's to put Bush and his policies under the spot light which also makes many more people, myself included, taking a closer look at him, his policies and where are they taking us and is that where we really want to go?

These are the times when all the so called glory of a President, in this case Bush, and his response to terrorism and Iraq are stripped away, set aside and a closer examination of his domestic & foreign policies are being exposed and examined.

This is not the time for pessimism, hopelessness,
nor "fear" it's a time for an evaluation of Our President, his policies, his accomplishments AND failures and a time for evaluating the candidates, their proposed policies, their accomplishments AND their failures.

Nevermind what the Pundit's or those obsessed with polling statistic's are saying it's about what are the candidates saying vs what is the President saying..

[Jim]

Oh Maryann,

"Foul Play"? Are you referring to counting ALL of the votes in Florida (in which independant sources proved he won)? Unlike Gore who only wanted to recount a few highly Democratic districts.

"Saddam = 9/11 smokescreen" Please find the quote where the President or anyone in his administration blamed Saddam for 9/11. It doesn't exist.

"The Bushies are insane power-hungry bullies?" Are you sure you're not referring to Mr and Mrs. Rodham (sometimes) Clinton?

Stop the Hate!

[Del]

Jim please don't give them good advice...

Stopping the hate will only be the first step that Democrats will need to do to ever get back some of the power they once garnered. Don’t they realize the consistent loss of power for the last 10-15 years is due to the hatred approach? Americans are sick and tired of this strategy because it doesn’t do anything for anyone.

They haven't caught on yet...

Sadly all you hear from Kerry at this moment is how our President had no reason to go into Iraq.

Kerry is nuts! His own senate record will be his downfall - hence the reason why US Senators becoming president are few and far between. Too much baggage...

Aside from Kerry's ranting on the war - he has nothing else - poor bastard - except of course his wife from the Heinz fortune.

Some day Democrats will realize that the old game that has made them successful in the past needs to be overhauled.

Till then let’s revel in their agony… he-he-he…

[Jim]

Sorry Del. What was I thinking. Howard Dean! Howard Dean! Howard Dean!

Yes, no more rich Republicans in the White House. We need ultra Rich Democrats instead, like Mr. Kerry. This is a man with so much conviction of his beliefs that he threw other people's war medals into rivers while keeping his own. Psyche!

[Chrish]

"strategy because it doesn’t do anything for anyone."? Well Del, I guess it did since it's kept them in control all this time.. They're still trying that strategy here in CA.... But,
the people aren't buying into it anymore.

BTW, I heard on the radio today while driving home
I'm still searching on it, that here in CA. 52% of the people support Bush. Imagine that, here in CA, the heartland of Liberal domination and control, there's support for Bush?

[maryann]

I just want to say thanks to you guys. You've actually given me more hope than anything else of winning this election. If you represent the intellectual level of the voters who support Bush, November's going to be a breeze!

Now keep those brilliant insights coming, please!

[maryann]

So anyway, as I was saying, that is the general shape and tone of the pessimism that I've encountered from family and friends back home. I suspect that reflects some of the sentiment that would have caused the poll numbers to come out that way; in other words, people who don't want Bush back aren't necessarily confident he won't find a way to get elected. I think these fears are ungrounded and we should explore ways to address them.

Luke, is there a general get-together planned for any time soon; and if not, can we get something in the diary? It seems like a good time to brainstorm and see if we can come up with some interesting next steps in the run up to the primary. Obviously that involves pints of beer and even, possibly, a curry...

[Chrish]

Curry?? Oh drat, I love Curry or any of the other Indian dishes.. There's nothing like a good dish of Curry with steamed rice, some nahn for sopping purposes, and a good pint of beer..

That Maryann, is really playing unfairly and hitting below the belt, so to speak.. Quite brutal of you.

[Spellcheck]

Chrish

It is not necessary to use apostrophes in pluralized nouns

Yours,
Spellcheck

[FDA]

Also, Chrish, Indian food is available all over America. No need to fret.

Good eating to you,
FDA

[Sidney Blumenthal]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1133820,00.html

[Del]

I really do feel sorry for maryann concerning her statement about her family and friends feeling pessimistic and just plain unhappy.

There's the big difference between libs and non-libs - even when Clinton was in office, as much as I didn't find him to be a good president - it never affected the way I felt nor did I allow it to make me cry in my beer.

Even when times are tough - we non-libs find good and know how to make lemonade out of lemons. We tend to have a positive attitude and do sensible things to make changes.

Libs tend to wallow in their own misery - attacking what in their minds is the cause instead of working positively to change whatever ails one while still enjoying life.

Remember that feeling of pessimism feeds on itself – makes one miserable and is a good way to get nowhere quickly. Hence the state of the Democratic Party today...

I really do feel sorry for you folks... I really do.

BTW spellchecker – either you’re a nun or use to be one. You remind me of those dear sisters who made me practice my penmanship till my hand cramped. Love you baby!

[Sister Mary]

God Bless You, son.

[The English Language]

"use to be one"? for shame.....

[Del]

Nothing better than a 'free' editor...

You'll make a writer out of me - yet...

he-he-he...

[Del]

Oh... Thank you Sister Mary!

[Sister Mary]

The Lord is very pleased with you, Del.

[Del]

Sorry dear Sister Mary - I stop at God...

Today like many of our founding fathers - I'm a deist.

[Chrish]

Oooh, aren't we all getting catty now. Shouldn't be too long before the shouting and name calling erupts......

Spellcheck should be fired! You're supposed to
correct Before the Fact not After the Fact....

Really FDA?? There are actually Indian restaurants here in the USA, amazing.... Might you be knowing if there are any Armenian restaurants as well? LOL!

So Sidney, since the Democratic candidates are all now singing in symphony, espousing the same thing, may I assume that it doesn't really matter who wins the Democratic nomination for President?

Since they're all saying the same thing...

How about this one for President, Sidney? An excellent choice for Liberal Democrats:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4088522/

[Sidney Blumenthal]

James Brown is not running for President. Maybe next year......