Expats Against Bush

Howard Dean to the rescue?

There's been a lot of talk recently about Howard Dean taking over the reins at the DNC, and whether or not that's a good thing. This Newsweek web article, although short, does a good job of summation:

Dean gave hope to Democrats around the country with his maverick campaign. It was shock therapy, and Democrats need more of it. Every four years, one or the other party is written off. But stuff happens. President Bush is not immune to the second-term woes that have afflicted other presidents. He’s got a war that isn’t going well and a borrowing binge that could spiral into a recession if our allies decide to cash in the U.S. bonds they’re holding. For all the bravado, the Bush mandate is fragile. If 70,000 votes in Ohio had gone the other way, we’d be talking about the Republican enclave in the Old Confederacy and the Rocky Mountain states, and the resurgence of Blue America.

I would like to believe that Howard Dean could help, but not without a serious bout of hard soul-searching within the DNC to go along with Dean's leadership. There is no magic solution to the groupthink problem that contributed to our defeat this year.

Canadians rib would-be US expats

I was just forwarded this satire email commenting on the oft-supposed impending emigration of America's left to other countries - namely Canada.

The flood of American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week, sparking calls for increased patrols to stop the illegal immigration.

The re-election of President Bush is prompting the exodus among left-leaning citizens who fear they'll soon be required to hunt, pray and agree with Bill O'Reilly.

Canadian border farmers say it's not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, animal-rights activists and Unitarians crossing their fields at night.

"I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn," said Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota.

The producer was cold, exhausted and hungry.

"He asked me if I could spare a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn't have any, he left. Didn't even get a chance to show him my screenplay, eh?"

10% chance of avoiding economic "Armageddon"

Well, there's an attention grabber.

It seems this guy Stephen Roach, the top finance guy at Morgan Stanley, is not too hot on the economic future of the States. And when I say "not to hot", I mean Arctic:

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.
The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Go have a read of the rest of the article. Chilling stuff.

Back in Blighty

I'm back in London now after my long weekend in New York, a quite eventful weekend in the end in which I managed to take in a poetry reading (my mother's) an art gallery opening (over the top), the new Museum of Modern Art (spiffy) and a couple of walks in Central Park (glorious).

Of course, in the social gatherings I attended I was pinned against the wall a few times by sympathetic family and friends and asked how I was dealing with life post-election. I didn't want to dwell on it, but obviously I was disappointed. I am ashamed to say a few times that I said I didn't want to depress myself with it and I changed subjects. And the couple of Republicans in my extended family were remarkably sanguine - there was none of the gloating or joshing I might have expected. I got the sense, overall, that the mood was somber on both sides of the fence.

Then again, that was Upper West Side Manhattan.

Returning to America

Ha. Bet you thought I was moving back. Fat chance. I am, however, going back to New York for the weekend to attend my mother's book launch.

As often happens when I return to America and the warm embrace of family members, conversation will inevitably turn to my level of happiness living abroad and any possible plans I might have for returning. I've always maintained that somewhere down the line I will feel the urge to return home, but that's a nebulous time frame and I must admit that recently that timeframe has been pushed back a bit by events back home- well, not only events, I suppose I should say trends as well. I know I'm not the only expat who feels like his home has been replaced with a slightly creepier copy that he's not entirely happy with; nor am I the only one to feel the urge to return fading a bit.

There are some things happening that have been bugging me lately, and bugging all of you as well, which make me think to myself, This is not the America I left not so long ago. Here is a choice selection of recent developments:

• The House GOP caucus has voted to change the rules so that Tom Delay won't have to step down as their leader despite an imminent indictment from Texas. Note that he championed this same rule 10 years ago. The majority party is taking abuse of power to a new level, and nobody is standing in the way.
• The White House is reshuffling the Cabinet and restocking it with White House staffers - Bush loyalists all - which while not intrinsically unusual is still a categorical shift towards cronyism and unity of message. Look for Condi Rice in particular to become even more odious and two-faced than she was when she was "behind the scenes" in the NSA role. the days of candor have passed into dim memory, welcome to the new world of Up Is Down, Black Is White (New and Improved). The ongoing putsch at CIA is confirmation of this trend; there will be no dissent or variation from the party line.
• Meanwhile the government, in the form of the FCC, have cowed the media into almost total obeisance. Stations and media conglomerates are falling all over themselves not to offend the electorate (witness the recent refusal of several ABC stations to carry the nationally-broadcast Saving Private Ryan on Veteran's Day for fear of censure) - and it seems that every day brings a new case of "outraged" citizenry forcing the FCC to fine broadcasters for "indecent" material - even Fox is not immune to the whims of 3 complainants. And when the public expects, nay demands, this level of governmental control over the content of their media. Where is that going to go, I wonder?

I am doing a lot of frowning when I read the news lately, as I am sure are many of you. My home is an alien nation, and I'm not sure when or if sanity will be restored.

Secretary of State Rice

Oh dear, oh dear. Anyone looking for evidence of Bush softening up his policies now that he doesn't have to face reelection will not have much ammunition to play with now that Bush has replaced the troublemaking Colin Powell with the loyal footsoldier Condi Rice. Assuming Rumsfeld stays on, the entire administration will now be in lock-step, personally tied into Bush, and, more ominously, into Dick Cheney.

Is it just me or does anyone else not place too much stock in Condi's diplomatic skills? She has one part of it downpat - lying through one's teeth - but it's the charm and nuance aspects that may elude her. Presidential staff? Sure. Stateswoman? Hmmm.

Technical Difficulties

It appears that the problems affecting posting on Typepad this week have been resolved, so I should be able to post properly again now. I have also re-published the previous 2 entries (Colin Powell & the CIA) so you should be able to comment on them now. And I know you will want to.

CNN: Colin Powell Resigns

This was on the cards for a while now, but Colin Powell has apparently submitted his resignation - a humbled shadow of his former self, one of the only senior people to attempt to inject some reason into the debate, ultimately falls on his sword.

This means, I suppose, that we'll get to see who's going to be the next SecState any day now.

CIA: "a hotbed of liberals"

Man, it sure does suck when you get bad news. Don't you just wish, sometimes, that you could shoot the messenger and the bad news would go away (via Daily Kos)?

WASHINGTON -- The White House has ordered the new CIA director, Porter Goss, to purge the agency of officers believed to have been disloyal to President George W. Bush or of leaking damaging information to the media about the conduct of the Iraq war and the hunt for Osama bin Laden, according to knowledgeable sources.

"The agency is being purged on instructions from the White House," said a former senior CIA official who maintains close ties to both the agency and to the White House. "Goss was given instructions ... to get rid of those soft leakers and liberal Democrats. The CIA is looked on by the White House as a hotbed of liberals and people who have been obstructing the president's agenda."

Guess they can just go hang out with their other pals in the reality-based community. One wonders what the new Presidential Daily Briefings are going to look like? I suggest the following:

CLASSIFIED - EYES ONLY
POTUS DCI Daily Briefing 02/12/2005

IRAQ
Doing spiffy. Mopping up the last of the terrorists and rebels who don't like being occupied hate freedom, should be done any day now. Suggest scheduling 2nd anniversary "Mission Accomplished" celebration.

AFGHANISTAN
Regional warlords have all sent their congratulations to POTUS on successful repeal of Roe vs Wade and wish to know when the public executions will begin in D.C.

PAKISTAN
Osama bin Laden is definitely hiding in a cave, we've got him pinned down to within 300 square miles. Our new friends in the ISI are definitely on the case. Any day now. Honestly.

IRAN
Reports of moderates in Iran are greatly exaggerated. Iran is a Clear and Present Danger to the United States of America and we recommend immediate preemptive action to make sure that the nuclear reactor they recently shut down stays that way. Otherwise we calculate a 98% probability that there will be a mushroom cloud over every American city within 18 months. Our assets indicate that Iranians will welcome American soldiers with open arms, garlands of flowers and free Persian rugs, and that they are prepared to set up a new government within 2 to 3 days after cessation of hostilities.

NORTH KOREA
Recommend ignoring it. The problem will solve itself, we think. Besides, that's so Cold War.

More Map Fun

Now this is interesting: a comparison of Red vs Blue states from the election and Slave vs Free states in the pre-Civil War period. Check it out.

The Onion nails it again

If you can take time off in your busy schedule of mourning the passing of Yassir Arafat (no, me neither), check this out. In one of those "I don't know whether to laugh or cry" moments, the Onion has yet again hit the nail squarely on the head in its latest feature, entitled simply "Nation's Poor Win Election For Nation's Rich":

"The Republican party—the party of industrial mega-capitalists, corporate financiers, power brokers, and the moneyed elite—would like to thank the undereducated rural poor, the struggling blue-collar workers in Middle America, and the God-fearing underpriviledged minorities who voted George W. Bush back into office," Karl Rove, senior advisor to Bush, told reporters at a press conference Monday. "You have selflessly sacrificed your well-being and voted against your own economic interest. For this, we humbly thank you."

Added Rove: "You have acted beyond the call of duty—or, for that matter, good sense."

Civil War II

I can't really believe this, but the Washington Times has an article seriously discussing the possibility of the Blue States seceding from the Union. In the words of Jimmy Stewart, that's just crazy talk.

The secession movement has already spawned commercial opportunism. One Web site is selling T-shirts that read "I seceded."
    No one at the White House would comment on the calls for secession, but one top Republican official with ties to the Bush administration said the recent talk is not surprising, coming off an election in which the president received more than 59 million votes — the most in history.
     "If we were that far out of the mainstream, maybe we'd be pushing the creation of our own country," the official said. "Then we might have a chance of ever winning an election again."

Meow!

Honestly, this is one of the silliest articles I have seen out of the mainstream press in quite a while.

UPDATE

Nope. Here's a sillier one. (thanks to Robert for this one):

The truth is, America is not just broken--it is becoming irreparable. If you believe that recent years of uncivil behavior are burdensome, imagine the likelihood of a future in which all bizarre acts are the norm, and a government-booted foot stands permanently on your face.

That is why the unthinkable must become thinkable. If the so-called "Red States" (those that voted for George W. Bush) cannot be respected or at least tolerated by the "Blue States" (those that voted for Al Gore and John Kerry), then the most disparate of them must live apart--not by secession of the former (a majority), but by expulsion of the latter. Here is how to do it.

Having been amended only 17 times since 10 vital amendments (the Bill of Rights) were added at the republic's inception, the U.S. Constitution is not easily changed, primarily because so many states (75%, now 38 of 50) must agree. Yet, there are 38 states today that may be inclined to adopt, let us call it, a "Declaration of Expulsion," that is, a specific constitutional amendment to kick out the systemically troublesome states and those trending rapidly toward anti-American, if not outright subversive, behavior. The 12 states that must go: California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, and Delaware. Only the remaining 38 states would retain the name, "United States of America." The 12 expelled mobs could call themselves the "Dirty Dozen," or individually keep their identity and go their separate ways, probably straight to Hell.

What a jackass.

 

Ashcroft Resigns

We knew it was coming, but it's still good to hear these words:

Attorney General John Ashcroft and Commerce Secretary Don Evans resigned from President Bush's Cabinet yesterday, launching the first shake-up of his administration as it heads toward four more years in power.

In a five-page, handwritten letter, Ashcroft told Bush: "The objective of securing the safety of Americans from crime and terror has been achieved. Yet I believe that the Department of Justice would be well served by new leadership and fresh inspiration."

Hold on. We're safe from crime and terror? Well, I guess we can stop bombing people then. Right?

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, John boy.

Diana Kerry on Voting Issues

I just received a mailout from Diana Kerry through the Americans Overseas for Kerry list, in which she discusses her disappointment in the result of the election, and, equally importantly, in the failures of the absentee ballot system and the support for expat voters in general:

Poor customer service, inaccurate, conflicting and outdated information, blocked websites, last minute rules changes and all the rest: it was an unmitigated disaster. As a result, many voters saw their absentee ballot requests wrongly denied, and a large number of duly registered voters did not receive ballots from their States in time, or at all. Based on preliminary results collected reported by local election officials, perhaps as many as 30% of registered overseas voters did not return their ballots in time to have them count. A great many of you have been effectively disenfranchised during this election, either deliberately or through blunders, bureaucratic negligence, and worse. Whatever the reason, depriving you of your vote, never mind how you intended to cast it, is wrong.

I’d also like to acknowledge that I know many Americans abroad felt my brother’s concession Wednesday morning was premature, as all the absentee votes in Ohio and elsewhere had yet to be counted.  Please rest assured that thanks to the data available from local election officials, the Kerry-Edwards campaign was aware of scale of remaining uncounted absentee ballots, and conceded only after it was abundantly clear that even a massive overseas vote in favour of the Democrats would not have made a difference.  And despite that, we are still going to make sure that every overseas vote—military and civilian—is counted, as the law required.  As for possible vote-counting fraud, let me simply say that I hope we have learned out lesson about un-audited black-box voting.

Regarding that last piece, I know there has been a lot of talk on the web about vote tally irregularities, but I haven't seen anything that's seemed too much more than circumstantial yet, and I think that unless someone has been caught with their hands in the cookie jar at a high level and in a way which irrefutably would change the balance of the electoral votes, there is a huge danger of coming off sounding like sore losers - even Salon is saying there's not much to go on. However, I do think that next time round, there will be even more attention focused on the process - and I do hope we have a paper trail in the next election.

Apropos of our current situation

I thought I'd pass along this quote my mother shared with me today:

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people.  On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
--H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)

Boy we Robinsons sure are a literate bunch ain't we? I mean is we? I mean are we? Ah hell...

Housekeeping

You may notice that some sets of links, banners and so forth have disappeared. That's just me doing some housecleaning; I don't think links to the Kucinich campaign site or the Electoral Vote Predictor are particularly relevant nearly 1 week on. Of course, new sets of links will appear as we re-gear the site to face the challenge ahead.

More soon-to-be-expats?

BBC Magazine has yet another article examining the "phenomenon" of Americans considering the expat life now that Dubya has won reelection. I think it quite correctly points out that a lot of talk doesn't necessarily guarantee action:

The BBC News website received several e-mails from Democrats and other anti-Bush activists threatening, in varying tones of seriousness, to quit their homeland if George Bush was to win again. A few even mentioned moving to the UK.

Of course, in the cold light of day these sort of threats have a habit of coming to nothing.

However, they do point out that several expat-related websites, including the Canadian immigration site, saw a marked increase in traffic following the election.

Of course, idle, frustrated web surfing in your spare time does not necessarily guarantee action. Right, y'all?

County by County: Red Vs Blue

There are a couple of county-by-county red/blue maps floating around now that give a much more nuanced view of where Kerry and Bush's real support came from on Tuesday.

First off, this one from Electoral-Vote.Com operates on an all-or-nothing basis, much like the state-by-state maps you've seen.

If you want an even more nuanced view, this map from Princeton assignes counties colors on a spectrum between red and blue based on how far to either side they leaned.

Arafat "Clinically Dead"

According to Reuters:

Palestinian President Yasser Arafat was declared clinically dead on Thursday in a French hospital, Israeli television said citing French sources.

But Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurie denied the report, saying: "I have just spoken to the officials in Paris and they say the situation is still as it was. He is still in the intensive care unit."

We shall see. In any case his days of running things in Palestine seem to be over; perhaps this is what it will take to restart the peace efforts.

The Guardian: Election Blues

The Guardian has a piece up on how Britons received the election news yesterday:

"As REM once sang: 'It's the end of the world as we know it.' Only unlike REM, I don't feel fine."

At around 11am, shock gave way to group therapy through shared experience: "The time difference was particularly cruel on Brits, who yet again went to bed thinking the Democrats had won." This was from a friend of a friend. "Did anyone else hear supposed-polling guru Bob Worcester say something on ITV along the lines of, 'I'm Bob Worcester, it's 2am, and I am calling it - it's PRESIDENT KERRY!'? A real bloody Michael Fish moment."

At lunchtime, friends from America woke up and joined the chorus. With a defeated sneer, the Brits among them threatened to move home in protest; it isn't hard to imagine a Republican reply to this. "There's going to be a brain drain from this country which will leave the Red-State [Republican] morons to fend for themselves," wrote an American on the Guardian talk-boards. "I wonder what the immigration requirements are like in the UK?"

Yet again, more idle talk of expatriation. Wonder if it will amount to much?

Blumenthal's take on what happens next

Amidst all the "let's keep fighting" missives (including my own) that are flying to and fro, some of the more somber analyses are starting to appear, and they make for scary reading. Try this one from Sidney Blumenthal in Salon:

The new majority is more theocratic than Republican, as Republican was previously understood; the defeat of the old moderate Republican Party is far more decisive than the loss by the Democrats. And there are no checks and balances. The terminal illness of Chief Justice William Rehnquist signals new appointments to the Supreme Court that will alter law for more than a generation. Conservative promises to dismantle constitutional law established since the New Deal will be acted upon. Roe vs. Wade will be overturned and abortion outlawed.

Now, without constraints, Bush can pursue the dreams he campaigned for -- the use of U.S. military might to bring God's gift of freedom to the world, with no more "global tests," and at home the enactment of the imperatives of "the right God." The international system of collective security forged in World War II and tempered in the Cold War is a thing of the past. The Democratic Party, despite its best efforts, has failed to rein in the radicalism sweeping the country. The world is in a state of emergency but also irrelevant. The New World, with all its power and might, stepping forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old? Goodbye to all that.

God help us all.

Dean: Keep the faith

I got this email from Howard Dean through his Democracy for America organisation, and it bears reading:

Things you won't hear today:

Montana, one of the reddest states, has a new Democratic governor.

First-time candidates for state legislatures from Hawaii to Connecticut beat incumbent Republicans.

And a record number of us voted to change course -- more Americans voted against George Bush than any sitting president in history.

Today is not an ending.

Regardless of the outcome yesterday, we have begun to revive our democracy. While we did not get the result we wanted in the presidential race, we laid the groundwork for a new generation of Democratic leaders.

Democracy for America trained thousands of organizers and brought new leadership into the political process. And down the ballot, in state after state, we elected Dean Dozen candidates who will be the rising stars of the Democratic Party in years ahead.

Tens of millions of us are disappointed today because we put so much of ourselves into this election. We donated money, we talked to friends, we knocked on doors. We invested ourselves in the political process.

That process does not end today. These are not short-term investments. We will only create lasting change if that sense of obligation and responsibility becomes a permanent part of our lives.

Martin Luther King, Jr. said, "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter."

We will not be silent.

Thank you for everything you did for our cause in this election. But we are not stopping here.

Governor Howard Dean, M.D.

Electing to Leave

Good Lord. Harper's has a guide up online for folks who feel they need to expatriate from America following the election. I think if you're thinking of giving up your US passport or renouncing your citizenship then perhaps this site will cease to be of interest to you.

But it does make me wonder how the ranks of expats will be swelled by this election result. I don't mean to suggest that a heap of people will immediately start packing, but I'm sure that some people who may have been bandying the idea about of living in another country may be slightly more inclined to try it out now. I could be talking nonsense, though.

What next?

Well, now that it's official, and we know that Bush has won a second term - it makes me shudder to say that - we need to think about what happens next, both with this site, Democrats Abroad, the Democratic Party and the left in America.

I have to be honest, I had given some thought to what I would do with the site today had Bush lost. Something along the lines of a post simply saying

"Thanks for all the great work. It paid off. Good bye and godspeed."

It wasn't to be.

I had given very little thought to what would happen if Bush won. I guess I got so outraged at the thought that crazy ideas started popping up in my head:

If, after everything he's done, and everything we've all done to stop him being reelected, America still voted to keep him on board, well then maybe America ain't worth saving. Maybe I've done all I can and I can be justified in ripping up my passport, turning my back on my homeland and condemning it to spiral into a theocratic, fascist nightmare state. After all, if people vote Bush back into power, they get what they deserve. It's not my problem anymore.

But you and I both know that's not the right approach. The response to this defeat is not to run away with our tails between our legs like a kicked dog.

We will roll with the punch. And then we will punch back. Hard.

As Meteor Blades says over at Daily Kos, Don't Mourn. Organize.

This site will continue as long as there are Expats Against Bush who need a place to come and vent, and, more importantly, to plan for how we return power to sane representatives. Our next big challenge is 2006, and planning must start now.

For my part, my only regret is that I did too much typing and not enough doing. I didn't get to volunteer as much as I would have liked, nor did I take an especially active part in Democrats Abroad. Starting tonight at the Speakeasy, I plan to volunteer myself for whatever is required to lay the groundwork for victory at the next election.

I hope none of you come away from this defeat with apathetic hearts - rather that you turn disappointment to anger, and anger to resolve.

Remember: Bush wants you to give up.

Fuck him. Let's get organized.

-Luke

Breaking: Kerry concedes

This from CNN:

Sen. John Kerry calls President Bush to concede presidential election, CNN has learned. Details soon.

More from the AP:

Kerry ended his quest, concluding one of the most expensive and bitterly contested races on record, with a call to the president shortly after 11 a.m. EST, according to two officials familiar with the conversation.

The victory gave Bush four more years to pursue the war on terror and a conservative, tax-cutting agenda — and probably the opportunity to name one or more justices to an aging Supreme Court.

He also will preside over expanded Republican majorities in Congress.

"Congratulations, Mr. President," Kerry said in the conversation described by sources as lasting less than five minutes. One of the sources was Republican, the other a Democrat.

The Democratic source said Bush called Kerry a worthy, tough and honorable opponent. Kerry told Bush the country was too divided, the source said, and Bush agreed. "We really have to do something about it," Kerry said according to the Democratic official.

There's no place like home

I've seen a few despondent comments on this site in the last few hours from expats who now feel that they can never move home because the country has shifted too far to the right.

I must admit I am experiencing somewhat the same feelings - how can I possibly move back to a country where up to a third of the populace identify themselves as "evangelical", and, more importantly, where 51% of them voted to reelect George W Bush? That is so alien to my worldview that it's a pretty big leap for me to imagine myself in amongst my countrymen again.

However, I want to keep fighting to return sanity to America, so that one day I can go back there if I so choose. Not yet, though, not yet.

How're the rest of you expats feeling right now?

Defiance or denial?

This message has appeared on JohnKerry.Com:

Statement from Kerry Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill on Ohio

"The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

Is this realistic, or is it just prolonging the inevitable?

I am not overly optimistic, but I am not giving up quite yet.

I have my thoughts on the election and the future that I want to get jotted down, but I will wait until we all know what we're dealing with before doing so.

UPDATE

There's more from Daily Kos on the Ohio situation:

Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221

If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.

And more here from the WaPo about the role that absentee ballots could play in the decision.

US Embassy party - Video

Just in case you want to hearken back to a time of hope (less than 12 hours ago now) and watch a sea of expectant politico faces gazing up at plasma screens while munching mini-bagels, I've posted a little video of the festivities here (WMV, 256Kbps).

The Guardian has a bit about the shindig here - and more from the BBC.

Dark days

A bit slow off the uptake - I didn't realise Daschle was out. And we're down 2 seats in the Senate and 5 in the House.

If the Presidential race goes the way most people think it's going to go, then it will be hard to see this as anything less than a disaster for the Democratic party.

Keep hope alive, though.

Ohio

Ugh. I can't believe we are back in this situation again. Wonder when we'll know?

I'm going back to sleep for a while. I may need more than 3 hours sleep to cope with a bad result should it be announced. Let us hope for something better.

Back home now

I've had an interesting night at the Embassy and I'm glad that my posts have made it up - I just wish that the "called" electoral votes were lining up a bit more in our favor at the moment (192-112 Bush, with no swing states called). In any case I am going to grab a few more hours sleep now and see where we are on the flipside.

I'm crossing every appendage I've got.

Looking good

I am still at the Embassy party. If you look at the CNN screens blaring away all around you will see that they are calling 155 EVs for Bush vs 115 for Kerry. However this is as expected for this point in the evening, as so many precincts have yet to report. And nobody has called the swing states yet. The word from the Dems here is that early exit polling from OH and PA is solidly Kerry with Florida still up in the air. If Bush loses the first two he is mortally wounded. If he loses Florida he is dead already. I take this news from someone with deep knowledge and deep enough pockets to keep certain Dems in ice cream for days to come. By the way I think that there are more MPs than Dems here now - including David Drummond. Getting rather cosy with senior Dems tonight. Hmmm.

Unexpected guests

Clash of ideologies

I'd like to report that there's been a massive awkwardness about the Dems and Repubs mingling under the gaze of Dubya's portrait, but the only time i've noticed any GOP folk was a minute ago while I was picking up my Kerry badge. There were two Bushies checking out the goods on offer and making disparaging comments. Currently Bush is behind in the 'called' EV totals but the night is young. I am hearing good things about a projected Zogby. But the night is young.

One sided discourse so far

Well so far there's been a good turnout of Dems Abroad here at the Embassy, and not a hugely obvious GOP contingent. At the moment all the action appears to be downstairs in the ballroom / pub. Charles Kennedy of the Lib Dems is enjoying a swift pint nearby. CNN is blaring away but to be honest it's so early that nobody is too worried about it. Overall the mood here at least is optimism. Must find some Bushies and get their perspective...

Live posting from the US Embassy Party tonight

As I've said before I'll be going to the US Embassy election night party tonight in London. I have some idea of what to expect (a lot of backslapping, Bud drinking and BBQ munching) but I'm sure there will be some surprises, and, of course, the presence of both sides of the political spectrum is sure to make for some interesting scenes. It should be telling to see the reaction of both sets of supporters as the results start rolling in later (much later).

In any case, I have figured out how to post from my mobile phone to this weblog so, security and reception permitting, I will do 2 or 3 live posts from the inside of the Embassy party to give you a sense of the place. This should be between 11PM and 3AM GMT, or 6PM to 10PM EST for you US East Coaster folks.

My expectation is that I (like everyone else there) will leave the party in the wee hours not knowing who's going to win this thing. I will (like everyone else there) slip into an alcohol-induced fitful sleep, only to reawaken at 6AM and frantically check every website I know. Rinse. Repeat.

Oof. Kerry 262, Bush 261

Recently The Man Behind The Curtain at Electoral-Vote.Com stepped out and revealed himself, turning out to be an old school geek hero. This morning he was hard at work churning out the last electoral college predictions from the final pre-election polls, and now they're out. And they're not pretty:

Kerry 262 - Bush 261

He also notes that the Rehnquist absence from the Supreme Court brings a huge potential for trouble:

SCOTUS news: Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist announced last week that he was going to return to the Supreme Court yesterday. He did not return. According to the New York Times his office released a terse statement saying that the Chief Justice spent 7 days at Bethesda Naval Hospital where he was treated for thyroid cancer. He underwent a tracheotomy so he could breathe and he is now being given both chemotherapy and radiation treatment. Medical experts say this evidence suggests that the cancer was not successfully removed and that even with heroic treatment, patients with this type of cancer usually die within a year. Should the election end up in the Supreme Court, it is not known whether Rehnquist will particpate in the case and vote on the outcome. Should he decline to participate due to ill health, the deadlock in the country might end up in a Court itself deadlocked 4-4. In such an event, the lower court ruling stands but no legal precedent is set. An alternative scenario is that Chief Justice Rehnquist resigns and that President Bush makes a recess appointment, which does not require Senate confirmation. If Bush were to appoint a new justice without Senate confirmation who then cast the deciding vote to make Bush president I fear for the future of the country. Let us hope somebody wins big today with no litigation. Do your part and vote.

Magic Time

Amidst all the super-cynical pre-election talk of litigation and voter suppression in which we have all been engaged, it's easy to forget that voting is something truly special, and that an unprecedented number of new voters are turning out this year to make sure they have an impact.

Go check out this open thread at Daily Kos entitled simply "Your Voting Experience" and read some of the responses. I don't know, it kind of made me swell up a little bit. Sounds like this year could be really special.

In other news, I can't believe I have an end-of-day deadline at work, today of all days. I have the attention span of a gnat right now.

Late news: GOP can challenge Ohio voters

In what is sure to be a controversial move, an appellate court overturned the ban on the Republican efforts to challenge individual voters in Ohio. Hopefully this will only increase targeted voters' resolves as has seemed to be the case so far, but if this comes down to the wire in Ohio and this challenging business turns out to have some impact, then we are in for another round of mega-litigation. Great. More from the NYT:

The ruling, by the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, in Cincinnati, reversed two lower courts that had blocked the challenges just a day before. It also came as squadrons of lawyers from both parties in Ohio and other swing states from Pennsylvania to Florida to New Mexico were preparing for Election Day skirmishes that will include using arcane laws that allow challenges at the polls.

The lawyer for a pair of Cincinnati civil rights activists who had challenged the Republican plans to challenge voters said he would appeal Tuesday morning's decision to the United State Supreme Court.

But it appeared likely that when Ohio polls open, the Republicans would be able to put 3,500 challengers inside polling places around the state. Democrats also planned to send more than 2,000 monitors to the polls, though they said those people would not challenge voters.

That's because, uh, we like democracy.

No retreat, no surrender

For those of you not on the list, John Kerry sent out his final pre-Election Day email today:

During this campaign I have asked you for so much -- your time, your energy, and your financial support. Today, I ask you for one final thing -- your vote.

Tomorrow, Americans will face a choice.

How will we find our way forward? How will we keep America safe, and keep the American dream alive?

I believe we begin by giving this country we love a fresh start. This morning, I would like to give you as a plainly as I can the summary of my case on how -- together -- we can change America.

I believe we begin by moving our economy, our government, and our society back in line with our best values.

I believe we do whatever it takes to lead our troops to success and bring them home safe. And when they do come home, I believe we begin by rebuilding an America with a strong middle class where everyone has the chance to work and the opportunity to get ahead.

Tomorrow, you can choose a fresh start. You can choose a president who will defend America and fight for the middle-class.

You can choose between four more years of George Bush's policy to ship jobs overseas and give tax breaks to the companies that do it -- or a president who will reward the companies that create and keep good jobs here in the United States of America.

Tomorrow you will face a choice between four more years of George Bush's giveaways to the big drug companies and the big HMOs -- or a president who will finally make health care a right, and not a privilege, for every American.

This election is a choice between four more years of tax giveaways for millionaires along with a higher tax burden for you -- or a president who will cut middle-class taxes, raise the minimum wage, and make sure we guarantee women an equal day's pay for an equal day's work.

Tomorrow, America faces a choice between four more years of an energy policy for big oil, of big oil, and by big oil -- or a president who finally makes America independent of Mideast oil in ten years. A choice between George Bush's policy that just yesterday showed record profits for oil companies and record gas prices for American consumers. I believe that America should rely on our own ingenuity and innovation, not the Saudi Royal family.

Tomorrow this campaign will end. The election will be in your hands. If you believe we need a fresh start in Iraq; if you believe we can create and keep good jobs here in America; if you believe we need to get health care costs under control; if you believe in the promise of stem cell research; if you believe our deficits are too high and we're too dependent on Mideast oil then I ask you to join me and together we'll change America.

I ask for your vote and I ask for your help. When you go to the polls bring your friends, your family, your neighbors. No one can afford to stand on the sidelines or sit this one out.

And in return for your hard work, you have my commitment to always fight for you, to always be on your side. In the words of Bruce Springsteen that have become the theme of this campaign. "We've made a promise we swore we'd always remember...no retreat and no surrender."

Tomorrow we will change America and with your help I will always keep that promise to you.

Thank you,

John Kerry

Let's go kick some Bush butt, folks!

More voter disenfranchisement

From Daily Kos, a good roundup of the latest GOP-led voter suppression efforts.

In a letter, Berkeley County clerk John Smalls cites calls from a cell phone were made to Eastern Panhandle democrats telling them that they were not registered to vote. The letter also said the calls informed democrats in some cases they wouldn`t be able to vote on Election Day [...]

It's considered an improper act because when upset citizens called the voter registration office to make sure they were registered to vote, indeed they were. So, who made these misleading calls? The Berkeley County Clerk`s Office traced the number voters gave as the source back to the Eastern Panhandle Republican Headquarters.

I hope this comes back to bite the Republican leadership in the ass. You hear me, Karl? You're going to get your just desserts.

I mean, if you're going to do something like this-
-at least read The Onion first.

Game Time

Barring any last minute developments, we should now have a pretty good idea of who's going to win the Presidential election tomorrow.

Except we don't.

Virtually everyone is saying the contest (at least in the popular vote) is a dead even one at the moment. However, as you'll notice if you look to your right, at the moment the swing states are slightly predisposed towards Kerry (5% or so according to Gallup) but everything depends on voter turnout in those states and on the success or failure of the GOP minority voter suppression efforts (currently being investigated in my home state, South Carolina). The good news is that not everyone is being intimidated by these efforts [via TPM]:

My job is to get people to the polls and, more importantly, to keep them there. Because they’re crazily jammed. Crazily. No one expected this turnout. For me, it’s been a deeply humbling, deeply gratifying experience. At today’s early vote in the College Hill district of East Tampa -- a heavily democratic, 90% African American community — we had 879 voters wait an average of five hours to cast their vote. People were there until four hours after they closed (as long as they’re in line by 5, they can vote).

Here’s what was so moving:

We hardly lost anyone. People stood outside for an hour, in the blazing sun, then inside for another four hours as the line snaked around the library, slowly inching forward. It made Disneyland look like speed-walking. Some waited 6 hours. To cast one vote. And EVERYBODY felt that it was crucial, that their vote was important, and that they were important.

I hope this scene is repeated across the country.

I'm sure you'll all agree, we are in the final days of the election of our lifetimes. Everyone has worked so hard, I dearly hope it all pays off. On a personal note, I would be happy to have this site become irrelevant through lack of a target.

Helen Thomas on a Bush win

Legendary veteran White House reporter Helen Thomas, who famously was excluded from the Bush White House press room for openly criticizing Bush, has reflected on the past four years and summed up her feelings on what another Bush term would mean:

The presidential election on Tuesday is one of the most crucial in American history.

There are many reasons -- in foreign policy and on the domestic front -- why President George W. Bush should not be reelected.

Among them is the dominance of the radical right in his advisory councils, who are taking the United States down the wrong road at the start of the 21st century.

The road could lead to more mindless wars abroad and a widening gap between the rich and the poor in this country.

There will be only one way to read the election results if Bush wins: The world will see his victory as an affirmation by the American people of his disastrous preemptive war policy, which led the United States to invade Iraq without provocation.

More here....