Expats Against Bush

Howard Dean to the rescue?

There's been a lot of talk recently about Howard Dean taking over the reins at the DNC, and whether or not that's a good thing. This Newsweek web article, although short, does a good job of summation:

Dean gave hope to Democrats around the country with his maverick campaign. It was shock therapy, and Democrats need more of it. Every four years, one or the other party is written off. But stuff happens. President Bush is not immune to the second-term woes that have afflicted other presidents. He’s got a war that isn’t going well and a borrowing binge that could spiral into a recession if our allies decide to cash in the U.S. bonds they’re holding. For all the bravado, the Bush mandate is fragile. If 70,000 votes in Ohio had gone the other way, we’d be talking about the Republican enclave in the Old Confederacy and the Rocky Mountain states, and the resurgence of Blue America.

I would like to believe that Howard Dean could help, but not without a serious bout of hard soul-searching within the DNC to go along with Dean's leadership. There is no magic solution to the groupthink problem that contributed to our defeat this year.

Canadians rib would-be US expats

I was just forwarded this satire email commenting on the oft-supposed impending emigration of America's left to other countries - namely Canada.

The flood of American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week, sparking calls for increased patrols to stop the illegal immigration.

The re-election of President Bush is prompting the exodus among left-leaning citizens who fear they'll soon be required to hunt, pray and agree with Bill O'Reilly.

Canadian border farmers say it's not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, animal-rights activists and Unitarians crossing their fields at night.

"I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn," said Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota.

The producer was cold, exhausted and hungry.

"He asked me if I could spare a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn't have any, he left. Didn't even get a chance to show him my screenplay, eh?"

10% chance of avoiding economic "Armageddon"

Well, there's an attention grabber.

It seems this guy Stephen Roach, the top finance guy at Morgan Stanley, is not too hot on the economic future of the States. And when I say "not to hot", I mean Arctic:

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.
The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Go have a read of the rest of the article. Chilling stuff.

Back in Blighty

I'm back in London now after my long weekend in New York, a quite eventful weekend in the end in which I managed to take in a poetry reading (my mother's) an art gallery opening (over the top), the new Museum of Modern Art (spiffy) and a couple of walks in Central Park (glorious).

Of course, in the social gatherings I attended I was pinned against the wall a few times by sympathetic family and friends and asked how I was dealing with life post-election. I didn't want to dwell on it, but obviously I was disappointed. I am ashamed to say a few times that I said I didn't want to depress myself with it and I changed subjects. And the couple of Republicans in my extended family were remarkably sanguine - there was none of the gloating or joshing I might have expected. I got the sense, overall, that the mood was somber on both sides of the fence.

Then again, that was Upper West Side Manhattan.

Returning to America

Ha. Bet you thought I was moving back. Fat chance. I am, however, going back to New York for the weekend to attend my mother's book launch.

As often happens when I return to America and the warm embrace of family members, conversation will inevitably turn to my level of happiness living abroad and any possible plans I might have for returning. I've always maintained that somewhere down the line I will feel the urge to return home, but that's a nebulous time frame and I must admit that recently that timeframe has been pushed back a bit by events back home- well, not only events, I suppose I should say trends as well. I know I'm not the only expat who feels like his home has been replaced with a slightly creepier copy that he's not entirely happy with; nor am I the only one to feel the urge to return fading a bit.

There are some things happening that have been bugging me lately, and bugging all of you as well, which make me think to myself, This is not the America I left not so long ago. Here is a choice selection of recent developments:

• The House GOP caucus has voted to change the rules so that Tom Delay won't have to step down as their leader despite an imminent indictment from Texas. Note that he championed this same rule 10 years ago. The majority party is taking abuse of power to a new level, and nobody is standing in the way.
• The White House is reshuffling the Cabinet and restocking it with White House staffers - Bush loyalists all - which while not intrinsically unusual is still a categorical shift towards cronyism and unity of message. Look for Condi Rice in particular to become even more odious and two-faced than she was when she was "behind the scenes" in the NSA role. the days of candor have passed into dim memory, welcome to the new world of Up Is Down, Black Is White (New and Improved). The ongoing putsch at CIA is confirmation of this trend; there will be no dissent or variation from the party line.
• Meanwhile the government, in the form of the FCC, have cowed the media into almost total obeisance. Stations and media conglomerates are falling all over themselves not to offend the electorate (witness the recent refusal of several ABC stations to carry the nationally-broadcast Saving Private Ryan on Veteran's Day for fear of censure) - and it seems that every day brings a new case of "outraged" citizenry forcing the FCC to fine broadcasters for "indecent" material - even Fox is not immune to the whims of 3 complainants. And when the public expects, nay demands, this level of governmental control over the content of their media. Where is that going to go, I wonder?

I am doing a lot of frowning when I read the news lately, as I am sure are many of you. My home is an alien nation, and I'm not sure when or if sanity will be restored.

Secretary of State Rice

Oh dear, oh dear. Anyone looking for evidence of Bush softening up his policies now that he doesn't have to face reelection will not have much ammunition to play with now that Bush has replaced the troublemaking Colin Powell with the loyal footsoldier Condi Rice. Assuming Rumsfeld stays on, the entire administration will now be in lock-step, personally tied into Bush, and, more ominously, into Dick Cheney.

Is it just me or does anyone else not place too much stock in Condi's diplomatic skills? She has one part of it downpat - lying through one's teeth - but it's the charm and nuance aspects that may elude her. Presidential staff? Sure. Stateswoman? Hmmm.

Technical Difficulties

It appears that the problems affecting posting on Typepad this week have been resolved, so I should be able to post properly again now. I have also re-published the previous 2 entries (Colin Powell & the CIA) so you should be able to comment on them now. And I know you will want to.

CNN: Colin Powell Resigns

This was on the cards for a while now, but Colin Powell has apparently submitted his resignation - a humbled shadow of his former self, one of the only senior people to attempt to inject some reason into the debate, ultimately falls on his sword.

This means, I suppose, that we'll get to see who's going to be the next SecState any day now.

CIA: "a hotbed of liberals"

Man, it sure does suck when you get bad news. Don't you just wish, sometimes, that you could shoot the messenger and the bad news would go away (via Daily Kos)?

WASHINGTON -- The White House has ordered the new CIA director, Porter Goss, to purge the agency of officers believed to have been disloyal to President George W. Bush or of leaking damaging information to the media about the conduct of the Iraq war and the hunt for Osama bin Laden, according to knowledgeable sources.

"The agency is being purged on instructions from the White House," said a former senior CIA official who maintains close ties to both the agency and to the White House. "Goss was given instructions ... to get rid of those soft leakers and liberal Democrats. The CIA is looked on by the White House as a hotbed of liberals and people who have been obstructing the president's agenda."

Guess they can just go hang out with their other pals in the reality-based community. One wonders what the new Presidential Daily Briefings are going to look like? I suggest the following:

CLASSIFIED - EYES ONLY
POTUS DCI Daily Briefing 02/12/2005

IRAQ
Doing spiffy. Mopping up the last of the terrorists and rebels who don't like being occupied hate freedom, should be done any day now. Suggest scheduling 2nd anniversary "Mission Accomplished" celebration.

AFGHANISTAN
Regional warlords have all sent their congratulations to POTUS on successful repeal of Roe vs Wade and wish to know when the public executions will begin in D.C.

PAKISTAN
Osama bin Laden is definitely hiding in a cave, we've got him pinned down to within 300 square miles. Our new friends in the ISI are definitely on the case. Any day now. Honestly.

IRAN
Reports of moderates in Iran are greatly exaggerated. Iran is a Clear and Present Danger to the United States of America and we recommend immediate preemptive action to make sure that the nuclear reactor they recently shut down stays that way. Otherwise we calculate a 98% probability that there will be a mushroom cloud over every American city within 18 months. Our assets indicate that Iranians will welcome American soldiers with open arms, garlands of flowers and free Persian rugs, and that they are prepared to set up a new government within 2 to 3 days after cessation of hostilities.

NORTH KOREA
Recommend ignoring it. The problem will solve itself, we think. Besides, that's so Cold War.

More Map Fun

Now this is interesting: a comparison of Red vs Blue states from the election and Slave vs Free states in the pre-Civil War period. Check it out.