Expats Against Bush

There's no place like home

I've seen a few despondent comments on this site in the last few hours from expats who now feel that they can never move home because the country has shifted too far to the right.

I must admit I am experiencing somewhat the same feelings - how can I possibly move back to a country where up to a third of the populace identify themselves as "evangelical", and, more importantly, where 51% of them voted to reelect George W Bush? That is so alien to my worldview that it's a pretty big leap for me to imagine myself in amongst my countrymen again.

However, I want to keep fighting to return sanity to America, so that one day I can go back there if I so choose. Not yet, though, not yet.

How're the rest of you expats feeling right now?

Defiance or denial?

This message has appeared on JohnKerry.Com:

Statement from Kerry Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill on Ohio

"The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

Is this realistic, or is it just prolonging the inevitable?

I am not overly optimistic, but I am not giving up quite yet.

I have my thoughts on the election and the future that I want to get jotted down, but I will wait until we all know what we're dealing with before doing so.

UPDATE

There's more from Daily Kos on the Ohio situation:

Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221

If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.

And more here from the WaPo about the role that absentee ballots could play in the decision.

US Embassy party - Video

Just in case you want to hearken back to a time of hope (less than 12 hours ago now) and watch a sea of expectant politico faces gazing up at plasma screens while munching mini-bagels, I've posted a little video of the festivities here (WMV, 256Kbps).

The Guardian has a bit about the shindig here - and more from the BBC.

Dark days

A bit slow off the uptake - I didn't realise Daschle was out. And we're down 2 seats in the Senate and 5 in the House.

If the Presidential race goes the way most people think it's going to go, then it will be hard to see this as anything less than a disaster for the Democratic party.

Keep hope alive, though.

Ohio

Ugh. I can't believe we are back in this situation again. Wonder when we'll know?

I'm going back to sleep for a while. I may need more than 3 hours sleep to cope with a bad result should it be announced. Let us hope for something better.

Back home now

I've had an interesting night at the Embassy and I'm glad that my posts have made it up - I just wish that the "called" electoral votes were lining up a bit more in our favor at the moment (192-112 Bush, with no swing states called). In any case I am going to grab a few more hours sleep now and see where we are on the flipside.

I'm crossing every appendage I've got.

Live posting from the US Embassy Party tonight

As I've said before I'll be going to the US Embassy election night party tonight in London. I have some idea of what to expect (a lot of backslapping, Bud drinking and BBQ munching) but I'm sure there will be some surprises, and, of course, the presence of both sides of the political spectrum is sure to make for some interesting scenes. It should be telling to see the reaction of both sets of supporters as the results start rolling in later (much later).

In any case, I have figured out how to post from my mobile phone to this weblog so, security and reception permitting, I will do 2 or 3 live posts from the inside of the Embassy party to give you a sense of the place. This should be between 11PM and 3AM GMT, or 6PM to 10PM EST for you US East Coaster folks.

My expectation is that I (like everyone else there) will leave the party in the wee hours not knowing who's going to win this thing. I will (like everyone else there) slip into an alcohol-induced fitful sleep, only to reawaken at 6AM and frantically check every website I know. Rinse. Repeat.

Oof. Kerry 262, Bush 261

Recently The Man Behind The Curtain at Electoral-Vote.Com stepped out and revealed himself, turning out to be an old school geek hero. This morning he was hard at work churning out the last electoral college predictions from the final pre-election polls, and now they're out. And they're not pretty:

Kerry 262 - Bush 261

He also notes that the Rehnquist absence from the Supreme Court brings a huge potential for trouble:

SCOTUS news: Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist announced last week that he was going to return to the Supreme Court yesterday. He did not return. According to the New York Times his office released a terse statement saying that the Chief Justice spent 7 days at Bethesda Naval Hospital where he was treated for thyroid cancer. He underwent a tracheotomy so he could breathe and he is now being given both chemotherapy and radiation treatment. Medical experts say this evidence suggests that the cancer was not successfully removed and that even with heroic treatment, patients with this type of cancer usually die within a year. Should the election end up in the Supreme Court, it is not known whether Rehnquist will particpate in the case and vote on the outcome. Should he decline to participate due to ill health, the deadlock in the country might end up in a Court itself deadlocked 4-4. In such an event, the lower court ruling stands but no legal precedent is set. An alternative scenario is that Chief Justice Rehnquist resigns and that President Bush makes a recess appointment, which does not require Senate confirmation. If Bush were to appoint a new justice without Senate confirmation who then cast the deciding vote to make Bush president I fear for the future of the country. Let us hope somebody wins big today with no litigation. Do your part and vote.

Magic Time

Amidst all the super-cynical pre-election talk of litigation and voter suppression in which we have all been engaged, it's easy to forget that voting is something truly special, and that an unprecedented number of new voters are turning out this year to make sure they have an impact.

Go check out this open thread at Daily Kos entitled simply "Your Voting Experience" and read some of the responses. I don't know, it kind of made me swell up a little bit. Sounds like this year could be really special.

In other news, I can't believe I have an end-of-day deadline at work, today of all days. I have the attention span of a gnat right now.

Late news: GOP can challenge Ohio voters

In what is sure to be a controversial move, an appellate court overturned the ban on the Republican efforts to challenge individual voters in Ohio. Hopefully this will only increase targeted voters' resolves as has seemed to be the case so far, but if this comes down to the wire in Ohio and this challenging business turns out to have some impact, then we are in for another round of mega-litigation. Great. More from the NYT:

The ruling, by the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, in Cincinnati, reversed two lower courts that had blocked the challenges just a day before. It also came as squadrons of lawyers from both parties in Ohio and other swing states from Pennsylvania to Florida to New Mexico were preparing for Election Day skirmishes that will include using arcane laws that allow challenges at the polls.

The lawyer for a pair of Cincinnati civil rights activists who had challenged the Republican plans to challenge voters said he would appeal Tuesday morning's decision to the United State Supreme Court.

But it appeared likely that when Ohio polls open, the Republicans would be able to put 3,500 challengers inside polling places around the state. Democrats also planned to send more than 2,000 monitors to the polls, though they said those people would not challenge voters.

That's because, uh, we like democracy.